Will CD Leganés win on 2026-10-28?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 89¢ · $501 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$501.08
-$15.36
85.5¢ → 88.5¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 85.7¢ | $496.91 | $481.04 | -$15.88 | — |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Yesavg 83¢ | $26.31 | $9.25 | +$0.28 | — |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Yesavg 84¢ | $5.25 | $5.53 | +$0.28 | — |
SE sentrio<$100 | Yesavg 83¢ | $5.05 | $5 | -$0.05 | — |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Noavg 12¢ | $0.13 | $0.13 | +$0.01 | — |
BL BlackMamba08CTR<$100 | Noavg 12¢ | $0.14 | $0.13 | -$0.01 | — |
Invested
$496.91
Value
$481.04
PnL
-$15.88
Record
—
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$26.31
Value
$9.25
PnL
+$0.28
Record
—
Invested
$5.25
Value
$5.53
PnL
+$0.28
Record
—
Invested
$5.05
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.05
Record
—
Invested
$0.13
Value
$0.13
PnL
+$0.01
Record
—
Invested
$0.14
Value
$0.13
PnL
-$0.01
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.