Cincinnati vs. Houston
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Houston (17%) · Houston at 79¢ · $25K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Houston
6
Houston 17%
$24.7K
-$109.69
Research grade
NeutralHouston at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Houston. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PR primm | Houstonavg 79.5¢ | $18.9K | $18.7K | -$237.55 | 46% 1296-1494 (2790) |
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR | Cincinnatiavg 21¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$83.02 | 49% 450-466 (916) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Cincinnatiavg 21¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$25.29 | 58% 47408-34193 (81601) |
HI hi774cCTR | Cincinnatiavg 21¢ | $850 | $850 | +$0 | 46% 5301-6140 (11441) |
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR | Cincinnatiavg 21.5¢ | $325.71 | $318.17 | +$7.58 | 47% 397-439 (836) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Cincinnatiavg 20¢ | $242.14 | $254.1 | +$11.98 | 48% 62298-67159 (129457) |
Invested
$18,928.02
Value
$18.7K
PnL
-$237.55
Record
46%
1296-1494 (2790)
Invested
$3,486.84
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$83.02
Record
49%
450-466 (916)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,062.09
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$25.29
Record
58%
47408-34193 (81601)
Invested
$850
Value
$850
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
5301-6140 (11441)
Invested
$325.71
Value
$318.17
PnL
+$7.58
Record
47%
397-439 (836)
Invested
$242.14
Value
$254.1
PnL
+$11.98
Record
48%
62298-67159 (129457)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.