Consensus PnL $101K · win rate 49% (429–439, n=868) · PM monthly #802 · holds 11 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$100.6K
Record
429W / 439L
Win Rate
49.0%
of 868 settled
Batting Avg
60.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1239
Source
PM monthly #802
Record (90 d)
372/863 · 43%
Trades
1,813
Markets
943
Volume
$2.4M
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Top consensus positions
11 in listed consensus markets · 7 of 11 on the consensus side (64%)- South Carolina State vs. HowardSouth Carolina State $9.4K · now 88¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (60% of 10)
- Jaguars vs. RavensJaguars $5.6K · now 78¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (72% of 38)
- UTSA vs. Florida Atlantic: O/U 71.5Over $4.5K · now 53¢ · in at 50¢against the consensus (Under)
- Canucks vs. JetsCanucks $4.2K · now 10¢ · in at 32¢against the consensus (Jets)
- Oklahoma State vs. Kansas StateKansas State $3.5K · now 33¢ · in at 32¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
- Blackhawks vs. LightningBlackhawks $2.5K · now 5¢ · in at 20¢with the consensus (62% of 21)
- Bills vs. VikingsVikings $1.8K · now 38¢ · in at 36¢against the consensus (Bills)
- UTSA vs. Florida Atlantic: O/U 73.5Over $507 · now 47¢ · in at 44¢with the consensus (79% of 22)
Specialties
748 settled consensus markets · held side won 43% at an average entry of 43¢- MLB
+3 pts
side won 47% of 307 · avg entry 44¢
ROI +4%
Weakest: NHL — held side won 29% of 58 at an average 43¢ entry (−13 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 10%(won 26% of 74)
- 30–50¢: 68%(won 41% of 511)
- 50–70¢: 19%(won 51% of 145)
- 70¢ and up: 2%(won 94% of 18)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.