Cincinnati vs. Houston: O/U 61.5

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (22%) · Under at 53¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 7

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 22%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.0K

Combined PnL

$99.97

Smart Money Entry

49.4¢ → 52.5¢

+6% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 9 top traders (22%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares13,742

Combined PnL+$393.54

Over7 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares9,404

Combined PnL-$293.57

Under — 22%Over — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Underavg 49.4¢	$6.7K	$7.0K	+$392.27	48% 405-446 (851)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 51¢	$3.7K	$3.5K	-$179.68	54% 18479-15550 (34029)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 51.9¢	$2.4K	$865.95	-$85.1	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 51¢	$340.66	$341.89	-$0.54	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$179.46	$172.46	-$8.76
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$161.2	$169.42	+$8.22
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 51¢	$178.5	$169.75	-$8.75	64% 10179-5769 (15948)
PR primm<$100	Underavg 50.8¢	$86.28	$87.55	+$1.27	47% 1316-1503 (2819)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 51¢	$511	$27.04	-$20.02	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Overavg 48.7¢	$15.29	$15.37	+$0.16	51% 5012-4882 (9894)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Overavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.45	-$0.18	50% 8436-8484 (16920)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Overavg 49.7¢	$0.99	$0.98	-$0.01	46% 8770-10463 (19233)

Multicoloured-Serf

Under

Invested

$6,697.87

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$392.27

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$3,673.3

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$179.68

Record

54%

18479-15550 (34029)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$2,397.11

Value

$865.95

PnL

-$85.1

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$340.66

Value

$341.89

PnL

-$0.54

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

Both legs:

Invested

$178.5

Value

$169.75

PnL

-$8.75

Record

64%

10179-5769 (15948)

primm<$100

Under

Invested

$86.28

Value

$87.55

PnL

+$1.27

Record

47%

1316-1503 (2819)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$511

Value

$27.04

PnL

-$20.02

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.29

Value

$15.37

PnL

+$0.16

Record

51%

5012-4882 (9894)

RLWGCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.45

PnL

-$0.18

Record

50%

8436-8484 (16920)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.99

Value

$0.98

PnL

-$0.01

Record

46%

8770-10463 (19233)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 9 top traders (22%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.