Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (59%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Central Michigan vs. Eastern Michigan: O/U 37.5

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 42¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 5

Over59¢Under41¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$104.33

Smart Money Entry

41.8¢ → 41.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Over 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over59%

Under42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$977.78

Total Shares2,075

Combined PnL+$51.15

Over4 traders

Total Value$572.57

Total Shares839

Combined PnL+$53.18

Under — 43%Over — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 62¢	$765.39	$653.62	-$0.17	48% 59434-63450 (122884)
└ Over leg	Overavg 62¢	$446.19	$420.99	-$25.93
└ Under leg	Underavg 40.1¢	$224.83	$232.63	+$25.75
PR primmCTR	Underavg 42.5¢	$483.24	$539.6	+$56.36	47% 1244-1422 (2666)
RN1CTR	Underavg 40.9¢	$431.5	$428.54	-$2.95	53% 60181-52537 (112718)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Overavg 57.7¢	$288.68	$337.5	+$48.82	59% 31932-22560 (54492)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Overavg 57.6¢	$93.87	$93.13	-$0.74	53% 11880-10404 (22284)
3C 0x3ca9...424a	Overavg 56.9¢	$128.54	$78.94	+$3.81	—
65 6512395314597884<$100	Overavg 61.7¢	$61.71	$63	+$1.29	51% 4652-4485 (9137)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$11.89	$9.64	-$2.25	47% 11225-12583 (23808)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$765.39

Value

$653.62

PnL

-$0.17

Record

48%

59434-63450 (122884)

Both legs:

Over$446.1962¢-$25.93

Under$224.8340.1¢+$25.75

primmCTR

Under

Invested

$483.24

Value

$539.6

PnL

+$56.36

Record

47%

1244-1422 (2666)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$431.5

Value

$428.54

PnL

-$2.95

Record

53%

60181-52537 (112718)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Over

Invested

$288.68

Value

$337.5

PnL

+$48.82

Record

59%

31932-22560 (54492)

justaluckydude<$100

Over

Invested

$93.87

Value

$93.13

PnL

-$0.74

Record

53%

11880-10404 (22284)

0x3ca9...424a

Over

Invested

$128.54

Value

$78.94

PnL

+$3.81

Record

—

6512395314597884<$100

Over

Invested

$61.71

Value

$63

PnL

+$1.29

Record

51%

4652-4485 (9137)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.89

Value

$9.64

PnL

-$2.25

Record

47%

11225-12583 (23808)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 42%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Over 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.