Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Ohio, while the market favors Miami (OH) (69%). 2 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Ohio (-14.5)
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Ohio (25%) · Ohio at 31¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Ohio
8
Ohio 25%
$5.3K
-$285.19
54.1¢ → 31¢
-43% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOhio at 31%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Miami (OH) 69%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Ohio. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI biying88888 | Miami (OH)avg 44¢ | $1.2K | $1.8K | +$651.46 | 27% 63-170 (233) |
PR primmCTR | Ohioavg 54.1¢ | $2.8K | $1.6K | $-1.2K | 61% 855-553 (1408) |
 RN1 | Miami (OH)avg 49.1¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$78.53 | 58% 3828-2805 (6633) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Miami (OH)avg 43¢ | $241.26 | $308.59 | +$67.33 | 54% 1660-1438 (3098) |
65 6512395314597884 | Miami (OH)avg 49.2¢ | $305.27 | $287.74 | +$89.61 | 51% 3172-3073 (6245) |
38 38791873984189 | Miami (OH)avg 46.2¢ | $97.51 | $116 | +$18.49 | 48% 959-1032 (1991) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Miami (OH)avg 43.4¢ | $69.38 | $68.85 | +$15.43 | 49% 446-472 (918) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Ohioavg 45.5¢ | $9.1 | $6.2 | -$2.9 | 68% 1603-748 (2351) |
Invested
$1,169.96
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$651.46
Record
27%
63-170 (233)
Invested
$2,814.34
Value
$1.6K
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
61%
855-553 (1408)
RN1Invested
$1,026.4
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$78.53
Record
58%
3828-2805 (6633)
Invested
$241.26
Value
$308.59
PnL
+$67.33
Record
54%
1660-1438 (3098)
Invested
$305.27
Value
$287.74
PnL
+$89.61
Record
51%
3172-3073 (6245)
Invested
$97.51
Value
$116
PnL
+$18.49
Record
48%
959-1032 (1991)
Invested
$69.38
Value
$68.85
PnL
+$15.43
Record
49%
446-472 (918)
Invested
$9.1
Value
$6.2
PnL
-$2.9
Record
68%
1603-748 (2351)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.