Spread: Ohio (-16.5)
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Miami (OH) (75%) · Miami (OH) at 72¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Miami (OH)
8
Miami (OH) 75%
$6.0K
-$232.41
48.9¢ → 72¢
+47% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralMiami (OH) at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Miami (OH). Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CM cm2897 | Miami (OH)avg 48¢ | $1.9K | $2.8K | +$945.68 | 49% 1097-1127 (2224) |
PR primmCTR | Ohioavg 51.1¢ | $3.1K | $1.6K | $-1.4K | 61% 855-553 (1408) |
 RN1 | Miami (OH)avg 52.1¢ | $818.82 | $912.3 | +$93.48 | 58% 3828-2805 (6633) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Miami (OH)avg 47¢ | $317.99 | $392.42 | +$74.42 | 54% 1660-1438 (3098) |
65 6512395314597884 | Miami (OH)avg 47.2¢ | $115.44 | $177.23 | +$61.79 | 51% 3172-3073 (6245) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Miami (OH)avg 56¢ | $31.77 | $32.9 | +$1.13 | 48% 959-1032 (1991) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Miami (OH)avg 46.9¢ | $19.15 | $23.68 | +$4.53 | 49% 446-472 (918) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Ohioavg 43¢ | $8.6 | $5.5 | -$3.1 | 68% 1603-748 (2351) |
Invested
$1,852.32
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$945.68
Record
49%
1097-1127 (2224)
Invested
$3,054.15
Value
$1.6K
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
61%
855-553 (1408)
RN1Invested
$818.82
Value
$912.3
PnL
+$93.48
Record
58%
3828-2805 (6633)
Invested
$317.99
Value
$392.42
PnL
+$74.42
Record
54%
1660-1438 (3098)
Invested
$115.44
Value
$177.23
PnL
+$61.79
Record
51%
3172-3073 (6245)
Invested
$31.77
Value
$32.9
PnL
+$1.13
Record
48%
959-1032 (1991)
Invested
$19.15
Value
$23.68
PnL
+$4.53
Record
49%
446-472 (918)
Invested
$8.6
Value
$5.5
PnL
-$3.1
Record
68%
1603-748 (2351)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.