Spread: Miami (OH) (-1.5)

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Ohio (25%) · Ohio at 78¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11

Miami (OH)22¢Ohio78¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ohio

Consensus Traders

Ohio 25%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$20.88

Smart Money Entry

59.4¢ → 78¢

+31% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOhio at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ohio

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Miami (OH)22%

Ohio78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ohio2 traders

Total Value$834.66

Total Shares1,144

Combined PnL+$155.47

Miami (OH)6 traders

Total Value$421.92

Total Shares1,455

Combined PnL-$176.35

Ohio — 25%Miami (OH) — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Ohio. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOhio 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedMiami (OH) 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Miami (OH) 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Ohioavg 59.4¢	$676.52	$831.64	+$155.12	61% 855-553 (1408)
RN1CTR	Miami (OH)avg 40¢	$312.4	$226.49	-$85.91	58% 3802-2784 (6586)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Miami (OH)avg 39.8¢	$120.84	$88.09	-$32.75	51% 3172-3072 (6244)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Miami (OH)avg 45.6¢	$97.25	$61.91	-$35.34	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Miami (OH)avg 45¢	$34.11	$21.98	-$12.13	28% 275-716 (991)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Miami (OH)avg 39.7¢	$21.44	$15.66	-$5.78	49% 444-470 (914)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Miami (OH)avg 45.5¢	$12.23	$7.8	-$4.44	54% 383-322 (705)
38 38791873984189<$100	Ohioavg 53¢	$2.67	$3.03	+$0.35	48% 949-1019 (1968)

primm

Ohio

Invested

$676.52

Value

$831.64

PnL

+$155.12

Record

61%

855-553 (1408)

RN1CTR

Miami (OH)

Invested

$312.4

Value

$226.49

PnL

-$85.91

Record

58%

3802-2784 (6586)

6512395314597884CTR

Miami (OH)

Invested

$120.84

Value

$88.09

PnL

-$32.75

Record

51%

3172-3072 (6244)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Miami (OH)

Invested

$97.25

Value

$61.91

PnL

-$35.34

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Miami (OH)

Invested

$34.11

Value

$21.98

PnL

-$12.13

Record

28%

275-716 (991)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Miami (OH)

Invested

$21.44

Value

$15.66

PnL

-$5.78

Record

49%

444-470 (914)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Miami (OH)

Invested

$12.23

Value

$7.8

PnL

-$4.44

Record

54%

383-322 (705)

38791873984189<$100

Ohio

Invested

$2.67

Value

$3.03

PnL

+$0.35

Record

48%

949-1019 (1968)

Research grade

NeutralOhio at 78%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Ohio

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Ohio. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOhio 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedMiami (OH) 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Miami (OH) 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ohio wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.8%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.