Ohio vs. Miami (OH): O/U 51.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 65¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 57%
$2.4K
$2.33
62.3¢ → 65¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SunlineTicker | Underavg 62¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$11.9 | 70% 1655-702 (2357) |
65 6512395314597884 | Underavg 63¢ | $378 | $381 | +$3 | 51% 3172-3072 (6244) |
PR primmCTR | Overavg 37¢ | $304.14 | $324.69 | +$20.55 | 61% 855-553 (1408) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Overavg 39¢ | $291.72 | $204.82 | -$6.98 | 48% 949-1019 (1968) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Overavg 38¢ | $20.98 | $21.26 | +$0.28 | 28% 279-730 (1009) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100 | Underavg 63¢ | $20.65 | $20.16 | -$0.49 | 56% 488-383 (871) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 70¢ | $17.5 | $15.38 | -$2.13 | 58% 3802-2784 (6586) |
Invested
$1,475.11
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$11.9
Record
70%
1655-702 (2357)
Invested
$378
Value
$381
PnL
+$3
Record
51%
3172-3072 (6244)
Invested
$304.14
Value
$324.69
PnL
+$20.55
Record
61%
855-553 (1408)
Invested
$291.72
Value
$204.82
PnL
-$6.98
Record
48%
949-1019 (1968)
Invested
$20.98
Value
$21.26
PnL
+$0.28
Record
28%
279-730 (1009)
Invested
$20.65
Value
$20.16
PnL
-$0.49
Record
56%
488-383 (871)
RN1<$100Invested
$17.5
Value
$15.38
PnL
-$2.13
Record
58%
3802-2784 (6586)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.