Spread: Toledo (-20.5)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Toledo (43%) · Toledo at 55¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 12

Toledo55¢UMass45¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Toledo

Consensus Traders

Toledo 43%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.8K

Combined PnL

-$110.5

Smart Money Entry

53.9¢ → 55¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralToledo at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Toledo

3 of 7 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Toledo55%

UMass45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Toledo3 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares7,283

Combined PnL-$16.84

UMass4 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares5,854

Combined PnL-$93.66

Toledo — 43%UMass — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Toledoavg 54.7¢	$3.8K	$3.8K	-$13.79	61% 870-566 (1436)
RN1CTR	UMassavg 45.8¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$92.25	57% 4059-3077 (7136)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	UMassavg 52.1¢	$771.21	$697.38	-$73.83	48% 1427-1570 (2997)
└ UMass leg	UMassavg 52.1¢	$491.21	$419.88	-$71.33
└ Toledo leg	Toledoavg 56¢	$280	$277.5	-$2.5
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	UMassavg 47.5¢	$603.4	$562.82	-$40.58	50% 3301-3257 (6558)
└ UMass leg	UMassavg 47.5¢	$491.4	$449.82	-$41.58
└ Toledo leg	Toledoavg 56¢	$112	$113	+$1
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	UMassavg 44.1¢	$498.21	$497.01	-$1.2	53% 1851-1666 (3517)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	UMassavg 41¢	$205	$207.5	+$2.5	55% 719-584 (1303)
LI LightParadox<$100	Toledoavg 36¢	$81.17	$78.92	-$2.25	31% 412-918 (1330)
PA Pan9XCTR	UMassavg 44.3¢	$105.3	$59.55	-$2.71	49% 692-733 (1425)
MA MadridTime<$100	Toledoavg 36¢	$28.93	$28.13	-$0.8	31% 410-897 (1307)

primm

Toledo

Invested

$3,816.52

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$13.79

Record

61%

870-566 (1436)

RN1CTR

UMass

Invested

$1,951.88

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$92.25

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

38791873984189ARB<$100

UMass

Invested

$771.21

Value

$697.38

PnL

-$73.83

Record

48%

1427-1570 (2997)

Both legs:

UMass$491.2152.1¢-$71.33

Toledo$28056¢-$2.5

6512395314597884ARB<$100

UMass

Invested

$603.4

Value

$562.82

PnL

-$40.58

Record

50%

3301-3257 (6558)

Both legs:

UMass$491.447.5¢-$41.58

Toledo$11256¢+$1

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

UMass

Invested

$498.21

Value

$497.01

PnL

-$1.2

Record

53%

1851-1666 (3517)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

UMass

Invested

$205

Value

$207.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

LightParadox<$100

Toledo

Invested

$81.17

Value

$78.92

PnL

-$2.25

Record

31%

412-918 (1330)

Pan9XCTR

UMass

Invested

$105.3

Value

$59.55

PnL

-$2.71

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

MadridTime<$100

Toledo

Invested

$28.93

Value

$28.13

PnL

-$0.8

Record

31%

410-897 (1307)

Research grade

NeutralToledo at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Toledo

3 of 7 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Toledo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.2%

55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$74.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

174.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.