CD Unión La Calera vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 2.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 78¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 67%
$2.1K
$411.15
48.2¢ → 77.5¢
+61% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 46.3¢ | $586.17 | $891.49 | +$305.32 | 51% 47280-44570 (91850) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR | Overavg 50¢ | $455.5 | $469.17 | +$13.67 | 53% 2990-2610 (5600) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 50.5¢ | $303 | $291 | -$12 | 59% 52401-37126 (89527) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 49.7¢ | $185.25 | $290.47 | +$105.21 | 50% 32573-32704 (65277) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 47¢ | $142.1 | $141.02 | -$1.08 | 53% 70213-61793 (132006) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $2.65 | $2.68 | +$0.03 | 50% 27958-27406 (55364) |
Invested
$586.17
Value
$891.49
PnL
+$305.32
Record
51%
47280-44570 (91850)
rayvanmechelenCTRInvested
$455.5
Value
$469.17
PnL
+$13.67
Record
53%
2990-2610 (5600)
VeryLucky888Invested
$303
Value
$291
PnL
-$12
Record
59%
52401-37126 (89527)
Invested
$185.25
Value
$290.47
PnL
+$105.21
Record
50%
32573-32704 (65277)
RN1CTRInvested
$142.1
Value
$141.02
PnL
-$1.08
Record
53%
70213-61793 (132006)
Invested
$2.65
Value
$2.68
PnL
+$0.03
Record
50%
27958-27406 (55364)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.