Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (57%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
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2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 43¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 19
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$1.2K
$232.37
41.3¢ → 43¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
75h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Noavg 40.5¢ | $648.29 | $724.54 | +$76.26 | 47% 1357-1501 (2858) |
CR crckr | Yesavg 34.2¢ | $207.81 | $352.51 | +$151.36 | 31% 739-1614 (2353) |
 AnjunCTR<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $67.24 | $55.38 | -$9.23 | 55% 5194-4277 (9471) |
SH shiifoo<$100 | Yesavg 43.2¢ | $23.65 | $31.9 | +$8.25 | 47% 4077-4633 (8710) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Yesavg 34.7¢ | $12.25 | $5.99 | +$5.74 | 40% 6553-9836 (16389) |
Invested
$648.29
Value
$724.54
PnL
+$76.26
Record
47%
1357-1501 (2858)
Invested
$207.81
Value
$352.51
PnL
+$151.36
Record
31%
739-1614 (2353)
AnjunCTR<$100Invested
$67.24
Value
$55.38
PnL
-$9.23
Record
55%
5194-4277 (9471)
Invested
$23.65
Value
$31.9
PnL
+$8.25
Record
47%
4077-4633 (8710)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$12.25
Value
$5.99
PnL
+$5.74
Record
40%
6553-9836 (16389)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.