FC København vs. SK Iberia 1999: O/U 4.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 76¢ · $659 held · ends Nov 5

Over24¢Under76¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 44%

Total Value

$658.52

Combined PnL

-$7.58

Smart Money Entry

75.4¢ → 76¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over24%

Under76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$375.91

Total Shares501

Combined PnL-$1.68

Over5 traders

Total Value$282.61

Total Shares1,147

Combined PnL-$5.89

Under — 44%Over — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Underavg 75.5¢	$302	$300	-$2	56% 7915-6323 (14238)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 25.8¢	$29.19	$182.45	-$4.71	51% 25751-24453 (50204)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 24.6¢	$67.93	$66.39	-$1.54	50% 25823-25522 (51345)
38 38791873984189<$100	Underavg 75¢	$43.35	$43.35	+$0	48% 61176-65982 (127158)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 75.4¢	$26.67	$26.87	+$0.2	55% 9738-8127 (17865)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 23.9¢	$16.89	$17.67	+$0.79	52% 1376-1291 (2667)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Overavg 25¢	$14.2	$14.2	-$0.28	48% 7398-7930 (15328)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Underavg 74¢	$5.61	$5.68	+$0.11	53% 2578-2255 (4833)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 25.9¢	$2.04	$1.89	-$0.15	51% 1379-1343 (2722)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$302

Value

$300

PnL

-$2

Record

56%

7915-6323 (14238)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$29.19

Value

$182.45

PnL

-$4.71

Record

51%

25751-24453 (50204)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$67.93

Value

$66.39

PnL

-$1.54

Record

50%

25823-25522 (51345)

38791873984189<$100

Under

Invested

$43.35

Value

$43.35

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

61176-65982 (127158)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$26.67

Value

$26.87

PnL

+$0.2

Record

55%

9738-8127 (17865)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.89

Value

$17.67

PnL

+$0.79

Record

52%

1376-1291 (2667)

OddstormCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.2

Value

$14.2

PnL

-$0.28

Record

48%

7398-7930 (15328)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Under

Invested

$5.61

Value

$5.68

PnL

+$0.11

Record

53%

2578-2255 (4833)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.04

Value

$1.89

PnL

-$0.15

Record

51%

1379-1343 (2722)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 76%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.9%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.