Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (69%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
K. Sint-Truidense VV vs. SK Brann: O/U 4.5
9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 32¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Over
9
Over 100%
$3.7K
$811.33
29.6¢ → 31.5¢
+7% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 32%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 69%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLooCTR | Overavg 30¢ | $1.1K | $1.8K | +$698.76 | 49% 14703-15372 (30075) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 29¢ | $631.28 | $663.93 | +$32.65 | 53% 61338-53656 (114994) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 29.5¢ | $640 | $660.83 | +$20.83 | 50% 28405-28303 (56708) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 29¢ | $247.86 | $261.06 | +$13.19 | 51% 25699-24415 (50114) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 29.7¢ | $133.5 | $137.25 | +$3.75 | 58% 46658-33622 (80280) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Overavg 30¢ | $60 | $98 | +$38 | 56% 7905-6321 (14226) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 30¢ | $17.4 | $17.69 | +$0.29 | 48% 61030-65863 (126893) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Overavg 31.1¢ | $6.52 | $10.29 | +$3.77 | 50% 1309-1291 (2600) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 30¢ | $4.5 | $4.58 | +$0.08 | 49% 4474-4672 (9146) |
Invested
$1,103.31
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$698.76
Record
49%
14703-15372 (30075)
RN1CTRInvested
$631.28
Value
$663.93
PnL
+$32.65
Record
53%
61338-53656 (114994)
Invested
$640
Value
$660.83
PnL
+$20.83
Record
50%
28405-28303 (56708)
Invested
$247.86
Value
$261.06
PnL
+$13.19
Record
51%
25699-24415 (50114)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$133.5
Value
$137.25
PnL
+$3.75
Record
58%
46658-33622 (80280)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$60
Value
$98
PnL
+$38
Record
56%
7905-6321 (14226)
Invested
$17.4
Value
$17.69
PnL
+$0.29
Record
48%
61030-65863 (126893)
Invested
$6.52
Value
$10.29
PnL
+$3.77
Record
50%
1309-1291 (2600)
Invested
$4.5
Value
$4.58
PnL
+$0.08
Record
49%
4474-4672 (9146)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.