Will Mjällby AIF win on 2026-11-05?
10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 56¢ · $445 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 100%
$445.25
-$1.94
57.3¢ → 56¢
-2% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 10 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+17 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 57¢ | $117.37 | $117.37 | +$0 | 51% 25716-24429 (50145) |
SE sentrio | Noavg 57¢ | $113.52 | $113.52 | -$0 | 50% 25811-25501 (51312) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 58.2¢ | $108.3 | $106.02 | -$2.28 | 50% 1313-1295 (2608) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $41.61 | $41.61 | +$0.37 | 49% 14704-15378 (30082) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $35.13 | $34.82 | -$0.31 | 48% 61036-65868 (126904) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $13.27 | $13.27 | -$0.12 | 53% 2570-2251 (4821) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $11.4 | $11.4 | -$0 | 55% 9735-8124 (17859) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $18.51 | $5.7 | +$0.37 | 58% 46667-33629 (80296) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $0.76 | $0.78 | +$0.01 | 53% 16798-14919 (31717) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $0.76 | $0.77 | +$0.01 | 64% 9962-5593 (15555) |
Invested
$117.37
Value
$117.37
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
25716-24429 (50145)
Invested
$113.52
Value
$113.52
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
25811-25501 (51312)
Invested
$108.3
Value
$106.02
PnL
-$2.28
Record
50%
1313-1295 (2608)
Invested
$41.61
Value
$41.61
PnL
+$0.37
Record
49%
14704-15378 (30082)
Invested
$35.13
Value
$34.82
PnL
-$0.31
Record
48%
61036-65868 (126904)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$13.27
Value
$13.27
PnL
-$0.12
Record
53%
2570-2251 (4821)
Invested
$11.4
Value
$11.4
PnL
-$0
Record
55%
9735-8124 (17859)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$18.51
Value
$5.7
PnL
+$0.37
Record
58%
46667-33629 (80296)
Invested
$0.76
Value
$0.78
PnL
+$0.01
Record
53%
16798-14919 (31717)
Invested
$0.76
Value
$0.77
PnL
+$0.01
Record
64%
9962-5593 (15555)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.