Spread: AD Cali (-1.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold AD Cali (40%) · AD Cali at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
AD Cali
5
AD Cali 40%
1 arb excluded
$3.0K
-$218.19
55.3¢ → 100¢
+81% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralAD Cali at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388 | AD Caliavg 54.8¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | +$10.68 | 55% 1781-1468 (3249) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Boyacá Chicó FCavg 27.7¢ | $687.81 | $188.65 | -$499.16 | 50% 25689-25525 (51214) |
| └ Boyacá Chicó FC leg | Boyacá Chicó FCavg 27.7¢ | $651.89 | $117.72 | -$534.18 | |
| └ AD Cali leg | AD Caliavg 48.1¢ | $35.92 | $70.94 | +$35.02 | |
 HRTrading<$100 | AD Caliavg 89.9¢ | $70.99 | $63.59 | -$7.39 | 53% 5677-5082 (10759) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Boyacá Chicó FCavg 47.4¢ | $37.67 | $62.73 | +$25.06 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Boyacá Chicó FCavg 45¢ | $38.13 | $37.28 | -$0.85 | 53% 16124-14290 (30414) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Boyacá Chicó FCavg 44.8¢ | $300.48 | $0.28 | -$245.69 | 58% 42718-31089 (73807) |
Invested
$2,598.71
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$10.68
Record
55%
1781-1468 (3249)
Invested
$687.81
Value
$188.65
PnL
-$499.16
Record
50%
25689-25525 (51214)
Both legs:
HRTrading<$100Invested
$70.99
Value
$63.59
PnL
-$7.39
Record
53%
5677-5082 (10759)
Invested
$37.67
Value
$62.73
PnL
+$25.06
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Invested
$38.13
Value
$37.28
PnL
-$0.85
Record
53%
16124-14290 (30414)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$300.48
Value
$0.28
PnL
-$245.69
Record
58%
42718-31089 (73807)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.