Will CDP Junior FC win on 2026-11-08?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 56¢ · $368 held · ends Nov 10

Yes56¢No44¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$368.3

Combined PnL

-$1.75

Smart Money Entry

59.6¢ → 55.5¢

-7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$167.95

Total Shares267

Combined PnL-$8.96

No4 traders

Total Value$200.34

Total Shares450

Combined PnL+$7.21

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 60¢	$136	$128.92	-$6.86	—
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$67.7	$68.47	+$0.77	—
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$58.48	$61.96	+$3.48	—
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$45.73	$48.45	+$2.72	—
SE sentrio<$100	Yesavg 60¢	$26.7	$24.7	-$2	—
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$21.23	$21.47	+$0.24	—
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 56.3¢	$12.64	$11.57	-$0.07	—
VE Venusian<$100	Yesavg 56¢	$2.8	$2.78	-$0.03	—

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$136

Value

$128.92

PnL

-$6.86

Record

—

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$67.7

Value

$68.47

PnL

+$0.77

Record

—

NM-PCTR<$100

Invested

$58.48

Value

$61.96

PnL

+$3.48

Record

—

GC-PCTR<$100

Invested

$45.73

Value

$48.45

PnL

+$2.72

Record

—

sentrio<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.7

Value

$24.7

PnL

-$2

Record

—

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Invested

$21.23

Value

$21.47

PnL

+$0.24

Record

—

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.64

Value

$11.57

PnL

-$0.07

Record

—

Venusian<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.78

PnL

-$0.03

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.