Will Tigres FC win on 2026-11-11?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 81¢ · $523 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$523.34
-$0.69
79.7¢ → 80.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 79.7¢ | $325.64 | $323.53 | -$2.12 | 51% 1822-1783 (3605) |
SE sentrio | Noavg 79.6¢ | $121.78 | $120.88 | -$0.9 | 37% 340-569 (909) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.6¢ | $42.08 | $42.8 | +$0.72 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $15.2 | $16.8 | +$1.6 | 30% 372-863 (1235) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $12.16 | $12.16 | +$0 | 30% 371-861 (1232) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $7.17 | $7.17 | +$0 | 30% 376-862 (1238) |
Invested
$325.64
Value
$323.53
PnL
-$2.12
Record
51%
1822-1783 (3605)
Invested
$121.78
Value
$120.88
PnL
-$0.9
Record
37%
340-569 (909)
Invested
$42.08
Value
$42.8
PnL
+$0.72
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$15.2
Value
$16.8
PnL
+$1.6
Record
30%
372-863 (1235)
Invested
$12.16
Value
$12.16
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
371-861 (1232)
Invested
$7.17
Value
$7.17
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
376-862 (1238)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.