Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Perth Scorchers, while the market favors Sydney Thunder (65%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Big Bash League, Women: Perth Scorchers vs Sydney Thunder
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Perth Scorchers (50%) · Perth Scorchers at 36¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Perth Scorchers
4
Perth Scorchers 50%
2 arb excluded
$16.5K
$14.92
27.9¢ → 35.5¢
+27% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralPerth Scorchers at 36%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Sydney Thunder 65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI midwicket72ARB<$100 | Sydney Thunderavg 57.7¢ | $15.7K | $15.2K | -$511.46 | — 2-3 (5) |
| └ Sydney Thunder leg | Sydney Thunderavg 57.7¢ | $10.1K | $12.0K | +$1.9K | |
| └ Perth Scorchers leg | Perth Scorchersavg 55.2¢ | $5.5K | $3.2K | $-2.4K | |
 tradecraftARB<$100 | Sydney Thunderavg 65.5¢ | $963.03 | $924.62 | -$38.4 | 19% 145-608 (753) |
| └ Sydney Thunder leg | Sydney Thunderavg 65.5¢ | $657.7 | $717.83 | +$60.13 | |
| └ Perth Scorchers leg | Perth Scorchersavg 42.1¢ | $305.33 | $206.79 | -$98.53 | |
CI cigarettesCTR | Perth Scorchersavg 27.6¢ | $368.33 | $380.08 | +$11.75 | 53% 5633-5071 (10704) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Sydney Thunderavg 50¢ | $43.33 | $43.51 | +$0.17 | 53% 1782-1584 (3366) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Sydney Thunderavg 49¢ | $20.49 | $23.27 | +$2.78 | 51% 1816-1775 (3591) |
PA pauleta23CTR<$100 | Perth Scorchersavg 46¢ | $10 | $10.22 | +$0.22 | 27% 175-464 (639) |
Invested
$15,734.92
Value
$15.2K
PnL
-$511.46
Record
—
2-3 (5)
Both legs:
tradecraftARB<$100Invested
$963.03
Value
$924.62
PnL
-$38.4
Record
19%
145-608 (753)
Both legs:
Invested
$368.33
Value
$380.08
PnL
+$11.75
Record
53%
5633-5071 (10704)
Invested
$43.33
Value
$43.51
PnL
+$0.17
Record
53%
1782-1584 (3366)
Invested
$20.49
Value
$23.27
PnL
+$2.78
Record
51%
1816-1775 (3591)
Invested
$10
Value
$10.22
PnL
+$0.22
Record
27%
175-464 (639)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.