Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Liquid (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group B
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Aurora Gaming (71%) · Aurora Gaming at 70¢ · $27K held · ends Nov 2
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Neutral
Aurora Gaming
7
Aurora Gaming 71%
$27.0K
-$273.49
69.6¢ → 69.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralAurora Gaming at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CORGIICTR | Liquidavg 31¢ | $11.7K | $11.4K | -$378.88 | 41% 396-575 (971) |
TR TrippleEX | Aurora Gamingavg 70¢ | $7.0K | $7.0K | -$0 | 58% 300-217 (517) |
 itwasawholething | Aurora Gamingavg 69¢ | $6.5K | $6.6K | +$94 | 59% 57-39 (96) |
 relativesignificance | Aurora Gamingavg 70.1¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$8.34 | 56% 116-90 (206) |
LU LucasCosta. | Aurora Gamingavg 69¢ | $324.29 | $328.99 | -$2.35 | 41% 333-479 (812) |
VE VetchCTR | Liquidavg 29¢ | $91.64 | $101.12 | +$4.74 | 60% 366-241 (607) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Aurora Gamingavg 69¢ | $45.75 | $46.42 | +$0.66 | 56% 14257-11059 (25316) |
CORGIICTRInvested
$11,745.28
Value
$11.4K
PnL
-$378.88
Record
41%
396-575 (971)
Invested
$7,000
Value
$7.0K
PnL
-$0
Record
58%
300-217 (517)
itwasawholethingInvested
$6,486
Value
$6.6K
PnL
+$94
Record
59%
57-39 (96)
relativesignificanceInvested
$1,542.72
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$8.34
Record
56%
116-90 (206)
Invested
$324.29
Value
$328.99
PnL
-$2.35
Record
41%
333-479 (812)
Invested
$91.64
Value
$101.12
PnL
+$4.74
Record
60%
366-241 (607)
Invested
$45.75
Value
$46.42
PnL
+$0.66
Record
56%
14257-11059 (25316)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.