Consensus PnL $17K · win rate 52% (836–776, n=1612) · was PM monthly #903 · holds 8 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$17.5K
Record
836W / 776L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 1612 settled
Batting Avg
33.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1616
Source
PM monthly #903
Trades
155
Markets
1,670
Volume
$2.5M
Top consensus positions
8 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 8 on the consensus side (63%)- Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?No $5.4K · now 54¢ · in at 62¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026?Yes $4.7K · now 15¢ · in at 14¢with the consensus (85% of 13)
- Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group ALegacy $4.2K · now 53¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (43% of 8)
- Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5)Team Spirit $4.0K · now 83¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (90% of 10)
- Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group AFURIA $680 · now 69¢ · in at 69¢against the consensus (FaZe)
- Will Dplus KIA win Worlds 2026?Yes $632 · now 8¢ · in at 6¢with the consensus (88% of 17)
- Will Top Esports win Worlds 2026?Yes $436 · now 3¢ · in at 1¢against the consensus (No)
- Will LYON win Worlds 2026?Yes $140 · now 1¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 8)
Specialties
834 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 55¢- Esports
+45 pts
side won 100% of 538 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +44%
- Soccer
+40 pts
side won 98% of 198 · avg entry 58¢
ROI +39%
- NBA
+49 pts
side won 100% of 25 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +44%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 97% of 39)
- 30–50¢: 24%(won 98% of 198)
- 50–70¢: 55%(won 99% of 462)
- 70¢ and up: 16%(won 99% of 135)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.