Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold FURIA (44%) · FURIA at 72¢ · $55K held · ends Nov 11

Legacy28¢FURIA72¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FURIA

Consensus Traders

FURIA 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$54.8K

Combined PnL

$156.62

Smart Money Entry

70.1¢ → 71.5¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralFURIA at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FURIA

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Legacy28%

FURIA72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FURIA4 traders

Total Value$38.5K

Total Shares53,457

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Legacy5 traders

Total Value$15.9K

Total Shares56,344

Combined PnL-$881.43

FURIA — 44%Legacy — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

175h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on FURIA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on FURIA) and the top 1000 (9 on Legacy) disagree here.

sniperLegacy 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrLegacy 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedFURIA 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Legacy 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WI Wiretransferxyz	FURIAavg 70¢	$31.5K	$32.4K	+$900	56% 378-298 (676)
PA PacersThreeandahalfCTR	Legacyavg 30¢	$10.5K	$9.8K	-$700	62% 1003-623 (1626)
KateBollingerCTR	Legacyavg 29.3¢	$4.9K	$4.8K	-$131.02	3% 3-89 (92)
LooksMaxxingx	FURIAavg 70¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$80	1% 7-628 (635)
RO robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18	FURIAavg 71¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$31.09	51% 708-691 (1399)
relativesignificanceCTR	Legacyavg 29.1¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$48.91	57% 145-111 (256)
IW iWasEnough	FURIAavg 70¢	$943.65	$970.61	+$26.96	—
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Legacyavg 29¢	$455.19	$451.74	-$3.45	35% 171-317 (488)
└ Legacy leg	Legacyavg 29¢	$235.64	$227.51	-$8.13
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 70.5¢	$219.55	$224.23	+$4.68
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Legacyavg 29¢	$42.31	$40.85	-$1.46	41% 3007-4413 (7420)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Legacyavg 29.1¢	$1.33	$1.28	-$0.05	15% 16-94 (110)

Wiretransferxyz

FURIA

Invested

$31,500

Value

$32.4K

PnL

+$900

Record

56%

378-298 (676)

PacersThreeandahalfCTR

Legacy

Invested

$10,499.97

Value

$9.8K

PnL

-$700

Record

62%

1003-623 (1626)

KateBollingerCTR

Legacy

Invested

$4,900.65

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$131.02

Record

3-89 (92)

LooksMaxxingx

FURIA

Invested

$2,799.95

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$80

Record

7-628 (635)

robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18

FURIA

Invested

$2,207.55

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$31.09

Record

51%

708-691 (1399)

relativesignificanceCTR

Legacy

Invested

$1,297.11

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$48.91

Record

57%

145-111 (256)

iWasEnough

FURIA

Invested

$943.65

Value

$970.61

PnL

+$26.96

Record

—

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Legacy

Invested

$455.19

Value

$451.74

PnL

-$3.45

Record

35%

171-317 (488)

Both legs:

Legacy$235.6429¢-$8.13

FURIA$219.5570.5¢+$4.68

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Legacy

Invested

$42.31

Value

$40.85

PnL

-$1.46

Record

41%

3007-4413 (7420)

OddstormCTR<$100

Legacy

Invested

$1.33

Value

$1.28

PnL

-$0.05

Record

15%

16-94 (110)

Research grade

NeutralFURIA at 72%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

FURIA

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

175h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on FURIA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on FURIA) and the top 1000 (9 on Legacy) disagree here.

sniperLegacy 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrLegacy 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedFURIA 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Legacy 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FURIA wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.