Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold G2 (56%) · G2 at 52¢ · $38K held · ends Nov 11

MOUZ49¢G251¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

G2 56%

Total Value

$37.8K

Combined PnL

$221.85

Smart Money Entry

50.8¢ → 51.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralG2 at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

MOUZ49%

G252%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

G25 traders

Total Value$29.7K

Total Shares57,716

Combined PnL+$348.53

MOUZ4 traders

Total Value$8.1K

Total Shares16,750

Combined PnL-$126.68

G2 — 56%MOUZ — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on G2. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperG2 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrG2 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000G2 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
drainedandpoor	G2avg 51¢	$20.4K	$20.6K	+$200	47% 409-457 (866)
0X 0x06081d47a698bff1c673d77c50c11dd4c9da3120-1793914245258	G2avg 50.7¢	$5.9K	$6.0K	+$91.41	— 0-2 (2)
PL plustiCTR	MOUZavg 49¢	$6.0K	$5.9K	-$61.22	26% 13-37 (50)
LooksMaxxingx	G2avg 50¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$50	1% 9-631 (640)
relativesignificanceCTR	MOUZavg 50.7¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$61.48	56% 146-113 (259)
polaroid14	G2avg 51¢	$510	$515	+$5	— 1-2 (3)
RA RayayaCTR	MOUZavg 49¢	$257.19	$257.19	-$0	— 1-0 (1)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	MOUZavg 50¢	$198.47	$194.5	-$3.97	40% 248-366 (614)
Stickman22<$100	G2avg 48¢	$33.81	$35.93	+$2.11	— 0-3 (3)

drainedandpoor

Invested

$20,399.88

Value

$20.6K

PnL

+$200

Record

47%

409-457 (866)

0x06081d47a698bff1c673d77c50c11dd4c9da3120-1793914245258

Invested

$5,906.3

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$91.41

Record

—

0-2 (2)

plustiCTR

MOUZ

Invested

$6,000

Value

$5.9K

PnL

-$61.22

Record

26%

13-37 (50)

LooksMaxxingx

Invested

$2,500

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$50

Record

9-631 (640)

relativesignificanceCTR

MOUZ

Invested

$1,817.32

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$61.48

Record

56%

146-113 (259)

polaroid14

Invested

$510

Value

$515

PnL

+$5

Record

—

1-2 (3)

RayayaCTR

MOUZ

Invested

$257.19

Value

$257.19

PnL

-$0

Record

—

1-0 (1)

omnibus-076daaCTR

MOUZ

Invested

$198.47

Value

$194.5

PnL

-$3.97

Record

40%

248-366 (614)

Stickman22<$100

Invested

$33.81

Value

$35.93

PnL

+$2.11

Record

—

0-3 (3)

Research grade

NeutralG2 at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on G2. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperG2 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrG2 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000G2 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that G2 wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.