Consensus PnL $756K · win rate 48% (527–574, n=1101) · PM monthly #44 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$756.2K
Record
527W / 574L
Win Rate
48.0%
of 1101 settled
Batting Avg
12.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2038
Source
PM monthly #44
Record (90 d)
115/235 · 49%
Trades
1,182
Markets
1,293
Volume
$21.4M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 4 on the consensus side (75%)- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group ATeam Falcons $23K · now 56¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (63% of 72)
- Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $10K · now 13¢ · in at 19¢with the consensus (96% of 28)
- Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)Team Falcons $9.9K · now 29¢ · in at 29¢with the consensus (71% of 14)
- Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5)TYLOO $2.5K · now 9¢ · in at 34¢against the consensus (MOUZ)
Specialties
1,206 settled consensus markets · held side won 50% at an average entry of 47¢- Esports
+3 pts
side won 50% of 597 · avg entry 46¢
ROI +1%
- NHL
+12 pts
side won 63% of 27 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +4%
- MLB
+4 pts
side won 52% of 65 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +4%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 37% of 52 at an average 44¢ entry (−8 pts against the price), ROI +5%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 12%(won 22% of 148)
- 30–50¢: 36%(won 46% of 432)
- 50–70¢: 48%(won 56% of 578)
- 70¢ and up: 4%(won 90% of 48)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.