Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Natus Vincere (33%) · Natus Vincere at 71¢ · $40K held · ends Nov 2

Team Falcons30¢Natus Vincere70¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Natus Vincere

Consensus Traders

Natus Vincere 33%

Total Value

$39.7K

Combined PnL

$286.75

Smart Money Entry

70.1¢ → 70.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNatus Vincere at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Natus Vincere

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Team Falcons30%

Natus Vincere71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Natus Vincere3 traders

Total Value$25.9K

Total Shares36,825

Combined PnL+$101.95

Team Falcons6 traders

Total Value$13.8K

Total Shares46,637

Combined PnL+$184.8

Natus Vincere — 33%Team Falcons — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Natus Vincere. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTeam Falcons 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrTeam Falcons 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedTeam Falcons 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Team Falcons 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	Natus Vincereavg 71¢	$19.4K	$19.2K	-$133.46	53% 139-122 (261)
drainedandpoorCTR	Team Falconsavg 29¢	$9.7K	$9.9K	+$167.1	48% 567-614 (1181)
relativesignificance	Natus Vincereavg 67.5¢	$6.4K	$6.7K	+$235.51	55% 119-96 (215)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Team Falconsavg 29.3¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$10.17	47% 2621-2921 (5542)
forsenxdCTR	Team Falconsavg 29¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$19.08	53% 1078-942 (2020)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR	Team Falconsavg 30¢	$450	$442.5	-$7.5	32% 6341-13239 (19580)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Team Falconsavg 30¢	$150	$150	-$2.5	53% 5747-5084 (10831)
ZZ Zzzz87CTR	Team Falconsavg 30¢	$309	$91.16	-$1.55	47% 3172-3549 (6721)
SU suntori<$100	Natus Vincereavg 71¢	$13.52	$13.42	-$0.1	45% 12892-15654 (28546)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

Natus Vincere

Invested

$19,354.79

Value

$19.2K

PnL

-$133.46

Record

53%

139-122 (261)

drainedandpoorCTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$9,691.69

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$167.1

Record

48%

567-614 (1181)

relativesignificance

Natus Vincere

Invested

$6,443.87

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$235.51

Record

55%

119-96 (215)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$2,082.34

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$10.17

Record

47%

2621-2921 (5542)

forsenxdCTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$1,106.39

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$19.08

Record

53%

1078-942 (2020)

wokerjoesleeperCTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$450

Value

$442.5

PnL

-$7.5

Record

32%

6341-13239 (19580)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$150

Value

$150

PnL

-$2.5

Record

53%

5747-5084 (10831)

Zzzz87CTR

Team Falcons

Invested

$309

Value

$91.16

PnL

-$1.55

Record

47%

3172-3549 (6721)

suntori<$100

Natus Vincere

Invested

$13.52

Value

$13.42

PnL

-$0.1

Record

45%

12892-15654 (28546)

Research grade

NeutralNatus Vincere at 71%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Natus Vincere

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Natus Vincere. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTeam Falcons 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrTeam Falcons 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedTeam Falcons 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Team Falcons 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Natus Vincere wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.