Consensus PnL -$74K · win rate 48% (2463–2705, n=5168) · was PM monthly #743 · holds 15 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-74.0K
Record
2463W / 2705L
Win Rate
48.0%
of 5168 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1871
Source
PM monthly #743
Trades
36
Markets
5,519
Volume
$7.5M
Top consensus positions
15 in listed consensus markets · 10 of 15 on the consensus side (67%)- Spread: Commanders (-17.5)Eagles $25K · now 83¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Chiefs vs. BroncosChiefs $15K · now 51¢ · in at 52¢with the consensus (80% of 16)
- Will Athletic Club win on 2026-11-01?No $15K · now 51¢ · in at 53¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Juventus FC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5Over $11K · now 50¢ · in at 47¢against the consensus (Under)
- Spread: Bengals (-21.5)Titans $8.0K · now 79¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (80% of 10)
- Spread: Jets (-9.5)Raiders $7.9K · now 79¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Spread: Rams (-14.5)Chargers $7.6K · now 76¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Spread: Jets (-7.5)Raiders $7.5K · now 75¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (88% of 8)
Specialties
2,210 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 52¢- Tennis
+63 pts
side won 100% of 168 · avg entry 37¢
ROI +64%
- Esports
+52 pts
side won 100% of 566 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +52%
- MLB
+51 pts
side won 100% of 142 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +52%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 6%(won 100% of 138)
- 30–50¢: 42%(won 100% of 930)
- 50–70¢: 38%(won 100% of 848)
- 70¢ and up: 13%(won 100% of 294)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.