Will FK Mladá Boleslav win on 2026-09-06?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 59¢ · $1K held · ended Sep 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.2K
$68.74
53.1¢ → 58.5¢
+10% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+47 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 56.8¢ | $999.67 | $985.11 | +$28.54 | 58% 45427-32914 (78341) |
 RN1 | Noavg 15.4¢ | $27.42 | $104.37 | +$76.96 | 53% 60059-52427 (112486) |
BA Bagwell306<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $44.66 | $45.04 | +$0.38 | 57% 4172-3145 (7317) |
AR ARocky33CTR<$100 | Yesavg 95.9¢ | $65.64 | $28.42 | -$37.22 | 76% 4413-1366 (5779) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $2.85 | $2.93 | +$0.07 | 74% 2421-862 (3283) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$999.67
Value
$985.11
PnL
+$28.54
Record
58%
45427-32914 (78341)
RN1Invested
$27.42
Value
$104.37
PnL
+$76.96
Record
53%
60059-52427 (112486)
Invested
$44.66
Value
$45.04
PnL
+$0.38
Record
57%
4172-3145 (7317)
Invested
$65.64
Value
$28.42
PnL
-$37.22
Record
76%
4413-1366 (5779)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$2.85
Value
$2.93
PnL
+$0.07
Record
74%
2421-862 (3283)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.