FC København vs. AC Horsens: O/U 1.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 82¢ · $3K held · ended Sep 11

Over82¢Under18¢Ended Fri, Sep 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$146.4

Smart Money Entry

89.1¢ → 82¢

-8% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over82%

Under18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,534

Combined PnL-$178.98

Under3 traders

Total Value$489.81

Total Shares2,721

Combined PnL+$32.58

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Under) and the top 1000 (4 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 89.1¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$178.46	53% 60059-52427 (112486)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 16.7¢	$308.51	$331.68	+$23.17	58% 45427-32914 (78341)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 17.3¢	$147.72	$153.63	+$5.91	58% 50268-36310 (86578)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 84¢	$21.75	$21.23	-$0.52	56% 8924-7131 (16055)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Underavg 4¢	$1	$4.5	+$3.5	35% 18146-33983 (52129)

RN1

Over

Invested

$2,236.16

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$178.46

Record

53%

60059-52427 (112486)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$308.51

Value

$331.68

PnL

+$23.17

Record

58%

45427-32914 (78341)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$147.72

Value

$153.63

PnL

+$5.91

Record

58%

50268-36310 (86578)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$21.75

Value

$21.23

PnL

-$0.52

Record

56%

8924-7131 (16055)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$3.5

Record

35%

18146-33983 (52129)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 82%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Under) and the top 1000 (4 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.7%

82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.