Consensus PnL -$1.5M · win rate 60% (293–197, n=490) · PM monthly #208 · holds 20 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-1.5M
Record
293W / 197L
Win Rate
60.0%
of 490 settled
Batting Avg
47.1%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1163
Source
PM monthly #208
Trades
6,222
Markets
3,455
Volume
$37.7M
Top consensus positions
20 in listed consensus markets · 16 of 20 on the consensus side (80%)- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?Yes $85K · now 82¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (67% of 15)
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?No $5.5K · now 34¢ · in at 34¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-11-01?No $4.3K · now 89¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (78% of 29)
- Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-11-01?Yes $2.9K · now 100¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (64% of 23)
- Will Torino FC win on 2026-11-01?No $2.8K · now 93¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (88% of 19)
- Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-11-01?Yes $2.3K · now 61¢ · in at 58¢with the consensus (67% of 12)
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by December 31?No $1.4K · now 59¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (75% of 8)
- Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-11-01?No $1.2K · now 100¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (75% of 20)
Specialties
275 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 78¢- Soccer
+21 pts
side won 99% of 267 · avg entry 78¢
ROI −12%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 78% of 9)
- 30–50¢: 4%(won 91% of 11)
- 50–70¢: 15%(won 98% of 40)
- 70¢ and up: 78%(won 100% of 215)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.