Don Lemon sentenced to prison?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 96¢ · $1K held
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 80%
$1.0K
$48.36
89.1¢ → 96.4¢
+8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 96%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+13 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
1969h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ImJustKen | Noavg 88.1¢ | $759.82 | $831.67 | +$71.85 | 53% 3355-3002 (6357) |
 Talophex | Noavg 93.8¢ | $175.84 | $179.84 | +$3.99 | 91% 1039-99 (1138) |
PU PutsOnPeace<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $19.46 | $18.77 | +$1.26 | 66% 1031-529 (1560) |
AU Aurelius7CTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $40 | $10.91 | -$29.09 | 47% 293-333 (626) |
JE Jesetrading<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $5.56 | $5.36 | +$0.36 | 68% 718-341 (1059) |
ImJustKenInvested
$759.82
Value
$831.67
PnL
+$71.85
Record
53%
3355-3002 (6357)
TalophexInvested
$175.84
Value
$179.84
PnL
+$3.99
Record
91%
1039-99 (1138)
Invested
$19.46
Value
$18.77
PnL
+$1.26
Record
66%
1031-529 (1560)
Invested
$40
Value
$10.91
PnL
-$29.09
Record
47%
293-333 (626)
Invested
$5.56
Value
$5.36
PnL
+$0.36
Record
68%
718-341 (1059)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.