Consensus PnL -$8.5K · win rate 47% (286–325, n=611) · was PM monthly #950 · holds 9 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-8.5K
Record
286W / 325L
Win Rate
47.0%
of 611 settled
Batting Avg
60.9%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1321
Source
PM monthly #950
Record (90 d)
97/127 · 76%
Trades
1,469
Markets
654
Volume
$241.9K
Loading this trader’s full history
Large accounts take up to ~20 s
Loading positions and trades…
Top consensus positions
9 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 9 on the consensus side (67%)- Spread: Giants (-3.5)Eagles $837 · now 49¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (48% of 34)
- Spread: Patriots (-2.5)Patriots $802 · now 59¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (25% of 8)
- Iran full airspace closure by December 31?Yes $285 · now 27¢ · in at 37¢against the consensus (No)
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?Yes $20 · now 9¢ · in at 23¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $12 · now 1¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (92% of 24)
- Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $11 · now 2¢ · in at 26¢with the consensus (80% of 25)
- Don Lemon sentenced to prison?Yes $11 · now 4¢ · in at 13¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes $6 · now 5¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (70% of 63)
Specialties
404 settled consensus markets · held side won 66% at an average entry of 49¢- College Football
+42 pts
side won 97% of 29 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +39%
- NFL
+19 pts
side won 74% of 135 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +12%
- Geopolitics
+22 pts
side won 74% of 46 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +21%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 42% of 60 at an average 43¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI −7%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 16%(won 16% of 64)
- 30–50¢: 16%(won 39% of 64)
- 50–70¢: 62%(won 83% of 250)
- 70¢ and up: 6%(won 96% of 26)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.