Consensus PnL $8.3K · win rate 74% (629–220, n=849) · PM monthly #937 · holds 16 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$8.3K
Record
629W / 220L
Win Rate
74.0%
of 849 settled
Batting Avg
54.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#425
Source
PM monthly #937
Record (90 d)
102/118 · 86%
Trades
674
Markets
1,131
Volume
$184.5K
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Top consensus positions
16 in listed consensus markets · 10 of 16 on the consensus side (63%)- Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?Yes $9.5K · now 96¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (80% of 112)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $1.9K · now 76¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (64% of 130)
- Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?No $678 · now 77¢ · in at 46¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?Yes $312 · now 76¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (58% of 51)
- Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes $273 · now 3¢ · in at 15¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes $201 · now 97¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (71% of 145)
- Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?Yes $187 · now 3¢ · in at 15¢with the consensus (75% of 44)
- OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?Yes $175 · now 60¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (67% of 7)
Specialties
441 settled consensus markets · held side won 74% at an average entry of 68¢- Geopolitics
+17 pts
side won 93% of 30 · avg entry 76¢
ROI +4%
- Finance
+5 pts
side won 67% of 108 · avg entry 61¢
ROI +5%
- Elections
+4 pts
side won 80% of 97 · avg entry 76¢
ROI +7%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 21%(won 15% of 92)
- 30–50¢: 8%(won 44% of 34)
- 50–70¢: 7%(won 87% of 31)
- 70¢ and up: 64%(won 95% of 284)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.