CD Tecnico Universitario vs. Manta FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 56¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 9

Over44¢Under56¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$31.9

Smart Money Entry

60.1¢ → 56.5¢

-6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over44%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$618.82

Total Shares1,427

Combined PnL+$50.76

Under3 traders

Total Value$765.37

Total Shares1,184

Combined PnL-$18.86

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Overavg 38.4¢	$493.85	$552.24	+$58.4	50% 24147-24262 (48409)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 59.2¢	$461.1	$445.35	-$15.75	52% 49669-46633 (96302)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 62.6¢	$319.5	$202.89	+$2.69	50% 49324-48846 (98170)
SE sentrio	Underavg 59¢	$122.93	$117.13	-$5.8	51% 28858-28213 (57071)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 44¢	$139.5	$43	-$8.81	58% 53852-38329 (92181)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 34.7¢	$64.59	$23.58	+$1.17	45% 2751-3326 (6077)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Over

Invested

$493.85

Value

$552.24

PnL

+$58.4

Record

50%

24147-24262 (48409)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$461.1

Value

$445.35

PnL

-$15.75

Record

52%

49669-46633 (96302)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$319.5

Value

$202.89

PnL

+$2.69

Record

50%

49324-48846 (98170)

sentrio

Under

Invested

$122.93

Value

$117.13

PnL

-$5.8

Record

51%

28858-28213 (57071)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$139.5

Value

$43

PnL

-$8.81

Record

58%

53852-38329 (92181)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$64.59

Value

$23.58

PnL

+$1.17

Record

45%

2751-3326 (6077)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.