Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (53%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
CD Tecnico Universitario leading at halftime?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 48¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 43%
$1.0K
-$9.43
49.8¢ → 47.5¢
-5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Yesavg 50.3¢ | $409.67 | $427.24 | +$17.57 | 50% 24147-24262 (48409) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 48.6¢ | $224.63 | $219.74 | -$4.88 | 50% 33896-34147 (68043) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 50.9¢ | $221.86 | $208.39 | -$13.47 | 52% 49669-46633 (96302) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 50.8¢ | $55.92 | $52.61 | -$3.32 | 51% 28858-28213 (57071) |
MA MadridTime | Yesavg 52¢ | $100 | $49.5 | -$2.5 | 45% 2764-3372 (6136) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Yesavg 51.5¢ | $99.02 | $49.01 | -$1.99 | 45% 2751-3326 (6077) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Yesavg 51¢ | $57.98 | $28.7 | -$0.85 | 45% 2826-3461 (6287) |
Invested
$409.67
Value
$427.24
PnL
+$17.57
Record
50%
24147-24262 (48409)
Invested
$224.63
Value
$219.74
PnL
-$4.88
Record
50%
33896-34147 (68043)
Invested
$221.86
Value
$208.39
PnL
-$13.47
Record
52%
49669-46633 (96302)
Invested
$55.92
Value
$52.61
PnL
-$3.32
Record
51%
28858-28213 (57071)
Invested
$100
Value
$49.5
PnL
-$2.5
Record
45%
2764-3372 (6136)
Invested
$99.02
Value
$49.01
PnL
-$1.99
Record
45%
2751-3326 (6077)
Invested
$57.98
Value
$28.7
PnL
-$0.85
Record
45%
2826-3461 (6287)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.