Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (56%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

CD Tecnico Universitario vs. Manta FC: O/U 2.5

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 45¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 9

Over56¢Under44¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

-$285.13

Smart Money Entry

49.1¢ → 44.5¢

-9% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares6,926

Combined PnL-$305.9

Over2 traders

Total Value$432.27

Total Shares779

Combined PnL+$20.77

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 49.9¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$204.74	52% 49773-46707 (96480)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 49.4¢	$1.1K	$955.13	-$97.49	50% 33950-34198 (68148)
SE sentrioCTR	Underavg 44.8¢	$419.49	$416.8	-$2.69	51% 28897-28239 (57136)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Overavg 52¢	$208	$222	+$14	51% 2356-2290 (4646)
OM omnibus-076daa	Overavg 53.7¢	$203.5	$210.27	+$6.77	50% 24168-24285 (48453)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$600	$196	-$4	57% 215-161 (376)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$100	$104	+$4
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$100	$92	-$8
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$29.9	$28.93	-$0.97	48% 176-188 (364)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$2,030.32

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$204.74

Record

52%

49773-46707 (96480)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$1,052.62

Value

$955.13

PnL

-$97.49

Record

50%

33950-34198 (68148)

sentrioCTR

Under

Invested

$419.49

Value

$416.8

PnL

-$2.69

Record

51%

28897-28239 (57136)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Over

Invested

$208

Value

$222

PnL

+$14

Record

51%

2356-2290 (4646)

omnibus-076daa

Over

Invested

$203.5

Value

$210.27

PnL

+$6.77

Record

50%

24168-24285 (48453)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Over

Invested

$600

Value

$196

PnL

-$4

Record

57%

215-161 (376)

Both legs:

Invested

$29.9

Value

$28.93

PnL

-$0.97

Record

48%

176-188 (364)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 45%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.