Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (52%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Cheltenham Town FC win on 2026-11-07?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 49¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$6.2K
$166.75
53.2¢ → 48.5¢
-9% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Noavg 46.5¢ | $2.8K | $3.0K | +$274.87 | 50% 21367-21638 (43005) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 53.5¢ | $3.2K | $2.9K | -$117.13 | 58% 47061-33943 (81004) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 49¢ | $205.63 | $204.8 | +$8.97 | 51% 26324-24949 (51273) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0.15 | 53% 16941-15068 (32009) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 | 50% 26097-25756 (51853) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 52.2¢ | $2.62 | $2.51 | -$0.11 | 51% 1642-1552 (3194) |
Invested
$2,834.71
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$274.87
Record
50%
21367-21638 (43005)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$3,208.49
Value
$2.9K
PnL
-$117.13
Record
58%
47061-33943 (81004)
Invested
$205.63
Value
$204.8
PnL
+$8.97
Record
51%
26324-24949 (51273)
Invested
$5
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.15
Record
53%
16941-15068 (32009)
Invested
$5
Value
$5
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
26097-25756 (51853)
Invested
$2.62
Value
$2.51
PnL
-$0.11
Record
51%
1642-1552 (3194)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.