Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (55%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Stevenage FC vs. Luton Town FC: Both Teams to Score
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 45¢ · $3K held · ended Sep 10
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$3.5K
$-4.1K
99.7¢ → 44.5¢
-55% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 55%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PV pvc975CTR | Yesavg 99.9¢ | $7.4K | $3.3K | $-4.1K | 98% 14684-327 (15011) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 45.6¢ | $108.31 | $131.71 | +$23.4 | 58% 45420-32909 (78329) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $19.78 | $20.07 | +$0.29 | 53% 60045-52422 (112467) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 54¢ | $19.23 | $18.02 | -$1.21 | 58% 50265-36309 (86574) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $2.59 | $3.89 | +$1.3 | 35% 18059-33813 (51872) |
Invested
$7,426.48
Value
$3.3K
PnL
$-4.1K
Record
98%
14684-327 (15011)
VeryLucky888Invested
$108.31
Value
$131.71
PnL
+$23.4
Record
58%
45420-32909 (78329)
RN1<$100Invested
$19.78
Value
$20.07
PnL
+$0.29
Record
53%
60045-52422 (112467)
Invested
$19.23
Value
$18.02
PnL
-$1.21
Record
58%
50265-36309 (86574)
Invested
$2.59
Value
$3.89
PnL
+$1.3
Record
35%
18059-33813 (51872)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.