Will Stevenage FC win on 2026-11-14?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 98¢ · $859 held · ends Nov 14

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$859.18

Combined PnL

-$104.65

Smart Money Entry

95.1¢ → 98.5¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$780.19

Total Shares792

Combined PnL+$26.78

Yes3 traders

Total Value$78.23

Total Shares5,032

Combined PnL-$131.43

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

53h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 97.7¢	$365.89	$368.72	+$2.82	50% 65492-65807 (131299)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Noavg 91.5¢	$253.9	$250.09	+$17.77	64% 1253-708 (1961)
LO looppau	Noavg 94¢	$104.35	$102.78	+$4.7	99% 15884-134 (16018)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 3.4¢	$164.37	$76.02	-$88.35	50% 23496-23498 (46994)
DFSgznhdfsnhzfgdshndzf<$100	Noavg 96¢	$59.49	$58.6	+$1.49	64% 663-377 (1040)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 35.5¢	$34.79	$1.76	-$33.03	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$30	$0.45	-$10.05	59% 52427-37141 (89568)

cigarettes

Invested

$365.89

Value

$368.72

PnL

+$2.82

Record

50%

65492-65807 (131299)

lukibazdonauki754

Invested

$253.9

Value

$250.09

PnL

+$17.77

Record

64%

1253-708 (1961)

looppau

Invested

$104.35

Value

$102.78

PnL

+$4.7

Record

99%

15884-134 (16018)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$164.37

Value

$76.02

PnL

-$88.35

Record

50%

23496-23498 (46994)

DFSgznhdfsnhzfgdshndzf<$100

Invested

$59.49

Value

$58.6

PnL

+$1.49

Record

64%

663-377 (1040)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.79

Value

$1.76

PnL

-$33.03

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$10.05

Record

59%

52427-37141 (89568)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

53h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.