Consensus PnL $141K · win rate 63% (627–373, n=1000) · PM monthly #244 · holds 42 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$141.4K
Record
627W / 373L
Win Rate
63.0%
of 1000 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#728
Source
PM monthly #244
Record (90 d)
92/464 · 20%
Trades
286
Markets
1,153
Volume
$76.5K
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Top consensus positions
42 in listed consensus markets · 13 of 42 on the consensus side (31%)- Will Como win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?No $142 · now 94¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (60% of 15)
- Will Roma win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?No $122 · now 82¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (73% of 16)
- Will Juventus win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?No $97 · now 97¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (54% of 13)
- Will Porto win the 2026-27 Primeira Liga Championship?No $93 · now 37¢ · in at 43¢with the consensus (100% of 8)
- Will Inter Milan win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?Yes $88 · now 59¢ · in at 59¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?No $52 · now 31¢ · in at 39¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Sporting CP win the 2026-27 Primeira Liga Championship?No $47 · now 94¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (67% of 7)
- Will Flamengo win Brazil Série A?No $42 · now 21¢ · in at 44¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
558 settled consensus markets · held side won 20% at an average entry of 16¢- Soccer
+9 pts
side won 26% of 133 · avg entry 18¢
ROI +11%
- Tennis
+9 pts
side won 22% of 23 · avg entry 12¢
ROI +1%
- NBA
+9 pts
side won 26% of 27 · avg entry 17¢
ROI +10%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 12% of 181 at an average 13¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 88%(won 15% of 493)
- 30–50¢: 11%(won 63% of 64)
- 50–70¢: 0%(won 0% of 1)
- 70¢ and up: 0%
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.