Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (71%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Blackburn Rovers FC vs. Stoke City FC: O/U 1.5
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 30¢ · $245 held · ended Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 75%
$244.55
-$0.84
28¢ → 29.5¢
+5% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 30%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 71%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 28.9¢ | $69.61 | $66.15 | -$3.46 | 54% 906-787 (1693) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Overavg 73¢ | $51.33 | $50.97 | -$0.35 | 48% 14393-15903 (30296) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 27.4¢ | $30.1 | $31.9 | +$1.8 | 52% 830-771 (1601) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 28¢ | $28 | $28 | +$0 | 50% 35607-35082 (70689) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 27¢ | $22.68 | $23.52 | +$0 | 53% 916-813 (1729) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 27.6¢ | $17.71 | $18.96 | +$1.25 | 51% 23399-22168 (45567) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 27¢ | $14.58 | $15.12 | +$0 | 56% 942-736 (1678) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Overavg 73¢ | $9.99 | $9.93 | -$0.07 | 74% 2370-822 (3192) |
Invested
$69.61
Value
$66.15
PnL
-$3.46
Record
54%
906-787 (1693)
Invested
$51.33
Value
$50.97
PnL
-$0.35
Record
48%
14393-15903 (30296)
Invested
$30.1
Value
$31.9
PnL
+$1.8
Record
52%
830-771 (1601)
Invested
$28
Value
$28
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
35607-35082 (70689)
Invested
$22.68
Value
$23.52
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
916-813 (1729)
Invested
$17.71
Value
$18.96
PnL
+$1.25
Record
51%
23399-22168 (45567)
Invested
$14.58
Value
$15.12
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
942-736 (1678)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$9.99
Value
$9.93
PnL
-$0.07
Record
74%
2370-822 (3192)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.