Will Portsmouth FC win on 2026-11-03?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 64¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3

Yes37¢No63¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$4.7

Smart Money Entry

65.8¢ → 63.5¢

-4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,059

Combined PnL+$12.86

Yes4 traders

Total Value$758.95

Total Shares2,326

Combined PnL-$8.17

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
rayvanmechelen	Noavg 66¢	$984.27	$1.0K	+$22.37	74% 2370-822 (3192)
KY Kyn008CTR	Yesavg 34¢	$668.24	$628.93	-$9.83	49% 277-290 (567)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 65.3¢	$326.34	$317.16	-$9.18	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 36.2¢	$96.99	$100.56	+$3.57	50% 27298-27227 (54525)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 34.1¢	$29.53	$27.7	-$1.82	45% 13648-16581 (30229)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 66¢	$16.83	$17.21	+$0.38	51% 7341-7085 (14426)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 67¢	$18.06	$17.12	-$0.94	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 65¢	$10.01	$10.4	+$0.23	52% 830-771 (1601)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$1.93	$1.76	-$0.08	53% 2336-2055 (4391)

rayvanmechelen

Invested

$984.27

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$22.37

Record

74%

2370-822 (3192)

Kyn008CTR

Yes

Invested

$668.24

Value

$628.93

PnL

-$9.83

Record

49%

277-290 (567)

Flaznorp

Invested

$326.34

Value

$317.16

PnL

-$9.18

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$96.99

Value

$100.56

PnL

+$3.57

Record

50%

27298-27227 (54525)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.53

Value

$27.7

PnL

-$1.82

Record

45%

13648-16581 (30229)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$16.83

Value

$17.21

PnL

+$0.38

Record

51%

7341-7085 (14426)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$18.06

Value

$17.12

PnL

-$0.94

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$10.01

Value

$10.4

PnL

+$0.23

Record

52%

830-771 (1601)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.93

Value

$1.76

PnL

-$0.08

Record

53%

2336-2055 (4391)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.