Exact Score: Liverpool FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
1 arb excluded
$1.5K
-$134.05
90.1¢ → 96.5¢
+7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 90.1¢ | $777.51 | $792.51 | +$15 | 50% 33863-33445 (67308) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 90¢ | $472.79 | $280.33 | -$132.59 | 58% 42698-31074 (73772) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Noavg 90.8¢ | $227.42 | $199.98 | -$27.44 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 90.8¢ | $118.43 | $121.91 | +$3.47 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $108.99 | $78.08 | -$30.91 | |
 RN1 | Noavg 90.5¢ | $151.16 | $145.01 | -$6.16 | 54% 57170-49418 (106588) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $37.31 | $25.01 | -$12.3 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $8 | $10 | +$2 | 48% 8966-9599 (18565) |
Invested
$777.51
Value
$792.51
PnL
+$15
Record
50%
33863-33445 (67308)
VeryLucky888Invested
$472.79
Value
$280.33
PnL
-$132.59
Record
58%
42698-31074 (73772)
Invested
$227.42
Value
$199.98
PnL
-$27.44
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
Both legs:
RN1Invested
$151.16
Value
$145.01
PnL
-$6.16
Record
54%
57170-49418 (106588)
Invested
$37.31
Value
$25.01
PnL
-$12.3
Record
57%
29237-21620 (50857)
Invested
$8
Value
$10
PnL
+$2
Record
48%
8966-9599 (18565)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.