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6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $726 held · ended Nov 8

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$726.2

Combined PnL

-$5.67

Smart Money Entry

92¢ → 99.7¢

+8% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$653.56

Total Shares668

Combined PnL+$28.62

Yes4 traders

Total Value$72.64

Total Shares1,563

Combined PnL-$34.29

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 88.6¢	$325.89	$354.37	+$28.48	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 95.9¢	$102.44	$98.14	-$0.2	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 95.6¢	$84.64	$81.09	+$0.21	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 95.7¢	$79.21	$75.89	+$0.06	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$31.89	$63	+$31.11	25% 1311-3950 (5261)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 95.5¢	$39.96	$38.28	+$0.12	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 4.4¢	$189.55	$7.96	-$0.38	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 100¢	$5.85	$5.8	-$0.05	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.9¢	$66.16	$1.66	-$64.5	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.6¢	$0.54	$0.01	-$0.52	48% 2079-2257 (4336)

RN1

Invested

$325.89

Value

$354.37

PnL

+$28.48

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

SnakeBall

Invested

$102.44

Value

$98.14

PnL

-$0.2

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$84.64

Value

$81.09

PnL

+$0.21

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$79.21

Value

$75.89

PnL

+$0.06

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

lovedudleyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.89

Value

$63

PnL

+$31.11

Record

25%

1311-3950 (5261)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$39.96

Value

$38.28

PnL

+$0.12

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$189.55

Value

$7.96

PnL

-$0.38

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$5.85

Value

$5.8

PnL

-$0.05

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.16

Value

$1.66

PnL

-$64.5

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.54

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.52

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.