Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (75%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-11-08?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (44%) · Yes at 26¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 8

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 44%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$9.41

Smart Money Entry

25.6¢ → 25.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$699.2

Total Shares2,725

Combined PnL-$14.91

No5 traders

Total Value$428.29

Total Shares577

Combined PnL+$5.49

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 25.7¢	$407.93	$405.22	-$2.71	58% 47334-34134 (81468)
DA darkumbreon88	Noavg 74¢	$222.58	$222.58	+$4.51	64% 2027-1130 (3157)
GC GC-P	Noavg 74¢	$172.15	$173.31	+$1.16	64% 10152-5754 (15906)
DV dv-pmCTR	Yesavg 26¢	$144.95	$142.16	-$2.79	48% 3363-3589 (6952)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 25.9¢	$111.74	$109.85	+$2.15	51% 26884-25495 (52379)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$52.04	$41.97	-$11.56	48% 62085-66960 (129045)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 75¢	$18.75	$18.5	-$0.13	50% 26296-25935 (52231)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Noavg 75.9¢	$11.12	$11.05	-$0.07	48% 7436-7974 (15410)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 74¢	$2.85	$2.85	+$0.02	53% 16959-15080 (32039)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$407.93

Value

$405.22

PnL

-$2.71

Record

58%

47334-34134 (81468)

darkumbreon88

Invested

$222.58

Value

$222.58

PnL

+$4.51

Record

64%

2027-1130 (3157)

GC-P

Invested

$172.15

Value

$173.31

PnL

+$1.16

Record

64%

10152-5754 (15906)

dv-pmCTR

Yes

Invested

$144.95

Value

$142.16

PnL

-$2.79

Record

48%

3363-3589 (6952)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$111.74

Value

$109.85

PnL

+$2.15

Record

51%

26884-25495 (52379)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.04

Value

$41.97

PnL

-$11.56

Record

48%

62085-66960 (129045)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$18.75

Value

$18.5

PnL

-$0.13

Record

50%

26296-25935 (52231)

Oddstorm<$100

Invested

$11.12

Value

$11.05

PnL

-$0.07

Record

48%

7436-7974 (15410)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.85

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

16959-15080 (32039)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.5%

25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$263.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

364.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.