Exact Score: CD Castellón 0 - 0 SD Eibar?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 96¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
1 arb excluded
$8.7K
$89.83
93.5¢ → 95.8¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 94.2¢ | $4.9K | $5.0K | +$93.25 | 51% 26251-24882 (51133) |
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3 | Noavg 91.9¢ | $2.3K | $2.4K | +$97 | 50% 2744-2719 (5463) |
E4 e46m3 | No | $999.5 | $999.5 | +$41.17 | 67% 27552-13859 (41411) |
 0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121CTR | Yesavg 7¢ | $346.9 | $205.75 | -$141.15 | 83% 89-18 (107) |
SN SnakeBallARB<$100 | Noavg 95.4¢ | $195.02 | $189.16 | -$5.85 | 51% 37914-37162 (75076) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 95.4¢ | $122.71 | $123.29 | +$0.58 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 4.4¢ | $72.3 | $65.87 | -$6.43 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $5.54 | $4.92 | -$0.44 | 58% 46962-33856 (80818) |
Invested
$4,898.45
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$93.25
Record
51%
26251-24882 (51133)
Invested
$2,257.69
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$97
Record
50%
2744-2719 (5463)
Invested
$999.5
Value
$999.5
PnL
+$41.17
Record
67%
27552-13859 (41411)
0x94d6530C8d6CF9A89c7F2E6a9CF4f2Cb50dF121CTRInvested
$346.9
Value
$205.75
PnL
-$141.15
Record
83%
89-18 (107)
Invested
$195.02
Value
$189.16
PnL
-$5.85
Record
51%
37914-37162 (75076)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$5.54
Value
$4.92
PnL
-$0.44
Record
58%
46962-33856 (80818)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.