Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on November 10?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 97¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$11.7K
-$696.02
94.6¢ → 96.9¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Mature
30h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 95¢ | $7.9K | $7.4K | -$471.36 | 61% 38-24 (62) |
EA Eager47259 | Yesavg 94.9¢ | $2.6K | $2.4K | -$109.61 | 40% 29-44 (73) |
SH Sharky6999 | Yesavg 88.7¢ | $798.6 | $817.2 | +$18.6 | 100% 30-0 (30) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Yesavg 96.2¢ | $627.17 | $614.89 | -$12.28 | 41% 3007-4413 (7420) |
TI timetowanderCTR | Noavg 6¢ | $471.74 | $354.06 | -$117.68 | 45% 348-425 (773) |
0X 0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616<$100 | Yesavg 97.5¢ | $53.66 | $49.98 | -$3.69 | — 3-2 (5) |
Invested
$7,869.73
Value
$7.4K
PnL
-$471.36
Record
61%
38-24 (62)
Invested
$2,559.64
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$109.61
Record
40%
29-44 (73)
Invested
$798.6
Value
$817.2
PnL
+$18.6
Record
100%
30-0 (30)
Invested
$627.17
Value
$614.89
PnL
-$12.28
Record
41%
3007-4413 (7420)
Invested
$471.74
Value
$354.06
PnL
-$117.68
Record
45%
348-425 (773)
Invested
$53.66
Value
$49.98
PnL
-$3.69
Record
—
3-2 (5)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.