Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on November 10?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 100¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 10

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$17.3K

Combined PnL

-$91.87

Smart Money Entry

93.8¢ → 99.6¢

+6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$17.3K

Total Shares17,380

Combined PnL+$35.09

Yes3 traders

Total Value$25.05

Total Shares5,662

Combined PnL-$126.96

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 95¢	$8.9K	$8.5K	-$463.02	61% 38-24 (62)
0X 0x709179E7392e59922Ab2D73cb1141698b30096f8-1773173619816	Noavg 92¢	$4.3K	$4.6K	+$272.08	0% 1-647 (648)
EA Eager47259	Noavg 93.1¢	$3.4K	$3.6K	+$241.49	40% 29-44 (73)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 95.9¢	$657.6	$642.15	-$15.46	41% 3007-4413 (7420)
TI timetowanderCTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$147.94	$24.69	-$123.25	45% 348-425 (773)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$4.05	$0.34	-$3.71	50% 4494-4439 (8933)
0X 0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.02	$0.02	-$0.01	— 3-2 (5)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$8,914

Value

$8.5K

PnL

-$463.02

Record

61%

38-24 (62)

0x709179E7392e59922Ab2D73cb1141698b30096f8-1773173619816

Invested

$4,315.77

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$272.08

Record

1-647 (648)

Eager47259

Invested

$3,354.06

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$241.49

Record

40%

29-44 (73)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$657.6

Value

$642.15

PnL

-$15.46

Record

41%

3007-4413 (7420)

timetowanderCTR

Yes

Invested

$147.94

Value

$24.69

PnL

-$123.25

Record

45%

348-425 (773)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.05

Value

$0.34

PnL

-$3.71

Record

50%

4494-4439 (8933)

0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.01

Record

—

3-2 (5)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.