Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 10PM ET

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Up (50%) · Up at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 2

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 50%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$6.39

Smart Money Entry

89.7¢ → 100¢

+11% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,342

Combined PnL+$62.58

Down3 traders

Total Value$75.85

Total Shares662

Combined PnL-$56.19

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 89.2¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$68.33	67% 99986-48367 (148353)
PE peepeepoopoo24	Upavg 92.5¢	$172.3	$175.88	+$3.58	57% 6788-5031 (11819)
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100	Downavg 39¢	$28.08	$36	+$7.92	54% 14599-12448 (27047)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Downavg 44.5¢	$31.8	$35.69	+$3.89	64% 58995-33560 (92555)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 93.3¢	$24.53	$15.2	-$9.33	52% 8570-8066 (16636)
19 196874353278CTR<$100	Downavg 9.4¢	$94	$4.15	-$68	45% 220-273 (493)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$1,086.22

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$68.33

Record

67%

99986-48367 (148353)

peepeepoopoo24

Invested

$172.3

Value

$175.88

PnL

+$3.58

Record

57%

6788-5031 (11819)

tmsd-testCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$28.08

Value

$36

PnL

+$7.92

Record

54%

14599-12448 (27047)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$31.8

Value

$35.69

PnL

+$3.89

Record

64%

58995-33560 (92555)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$24.53

Value

$15.2

PnL

-$9.33

Record

52%

8570-8066 (16636)

196874353278CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$94

Value

$4.15

PnL

-$68

Record

45%

220-273 (493)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.