Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 67¢ · $52K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
🔬
Research candidate
No
6
No 83%
$51.7K
$3.0K
67.5¢ → 67¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 67%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- $50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
4896h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 fleeth | Noavg 69¢ | $6.2K | $40.2K | +$2.2K | 51% 345-329 (674) |
PU purplegatto | Noavg 62.3¢ | $10.5K | $11.3K | +$788.99 | 50% 6012-6106 (12118) |
SU SulkingCrypto | Noavg 68¢ | $191.4 | $87.1 | +$0.14 | 23% 178-602 (780) |
TI title1<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $70 | $67 | -$3 | 53% 941-842 (1783) |
SE SeniorLaghetto<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $18 | $20.1 | +$2.1 | 69% 406-182 (588) |
LA Lasting-DessertCTR<$100 | Yesavg 51¢ | $10.59 | $6.85 | -$3.74 | 89% 564-67 (631) |
fleethInvested
$6,192.88
Value
$40.2K
PnL
+$2.2K
Record
51%
345-329 (674)
Invested
$10,519.27
Value
$11.3K
PnL
+$788.99
Record
50%
6012-6106 (12118)
Invested
$191.4
Value
$87.1
PnL
+$0.14
Record
23%
178-602 (780)
Invested
$70
Value
$67
PnL
-$3
Record
53%
941-842 (1783)
Invested
$18
Value
$20.1
PnL
+$2.1
Record
69%
406-182 (588)
Invested
$10.59
Value
$6.85
PnL
-$3.74
Record
89%
564-67 (631)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.