Consensus PnL $18K · win rate 90% (517–58, n=575) · was PM monthly #912 · holds 53 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$18.1K
Record
517W / 58L
Win Rate
90.0%
of 575 settled
Batting Avg
80.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#238
Source
PM monthly #912 + pinned
Trades
6,655
Markets
720
Volume
$3.5M
Top consensus positions
53 in listed consensus markets · 51 of 53 on the consensus side (96%)- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $34K · now 84¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (83% of 133)
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes $32K · now 97¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (74% of 34)
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?No $13K · now 90¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (65% of 37)
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $12K · now 96¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?No $12K · now 95¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (80% of 25)
- Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?No $9.6K · now 97¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (86% of 22)
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?No $9.6K · now 96¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (81% of 31)
- Will GameStop acquire eBay?No $9.5K · now 95¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (97% of 30)
Specialties
575 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 91¢- Crypto
+9 pts
side won 99% of 238 · avg entry 90¢
ROI +7%
- Geopolitics
+7 pts
side won 99% of 184 · avg entry 92¢
ROI +9%
- Finance
+7 pts
side won 100% of 34 · avg entry 93¢
ROI +8%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 1%(won 33% of 3)
- 50–70¢: 5%(won 90% of 29)
- 70¢ and up: 94%(won 100% of 543)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.